The coming global financial crisis (GFC). What will happen in Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies? Some people are a bit gleeful about the idea of a global financial crisis, that it will "send bitcoin to the moon." Beware what you wish for. Small-scale regional crises could show people why alternative systems (to protect against inflation and currency controls, for refugees to send money home, etc) are better and give them an opportunity to escape. Remember that such events would cause investment to dry up.
During the crisis in Greece, people didn't flock to buy gold or bitcoin, because they didn't have any money in the bank! They took out their paychecks as fast as they could and tried to make it until next week. Ugly, sudden, painful crises kill, imprison, and persecute a lot of people. Gradual, non-violent transitions to superior systems are obviously preferred. The way to achieve success is through informed choice, not desperation. You're all here because you chose to be, and that's how we'd like to keep it.
Transcript
[AUDIENCE] I really believe that we will have another global financial crisis (GFC) in the short-term future, because of the debt and endless printing of millions and millions of dollars. At a certain point, there will be a default. I don't say that I know [what will happen], but I want to ask about your personal view. Do you think there will be a repeat of the financial crisis that happened in 2008 - 2009?
What will the reaction of Bitcoin and the other cryptocurrencies across the world be? What is your personal opinion? [ANDREAS] What you want me to say... [Laughter] [AUDIENCE] I don't want you to tell me what I want to hear.
Tell me what you think! There may be a big difference between what I want [to hear], and what you think. [ANDREAS] Many people are slightly gleeful about the idea of a global financial crisis... that will send bitcoin to the moon and make everybody in this room a multi-millionaire.
Beware what you wish for. It would depend on the timing and the level of crisis we are talking about. In general, small-scale regional crises are beneficial for alternative systems of money, because they demonstrate why a different way might be better. They give people choices and a safe haven.
They give people an opportunity to exit a broken system, an opportunity to escape oppressive governments. Move their money [easily] across the border as a refugee; send money home as an immigrant. They can provide protection against inflation, against currency controls. Potentially, one day, [a way out of] war [zones], genocide, and other crises like that.
Absolutely. But if we had a global financial crisis today, the investment currently going into bitcoin... from the middle class, startup companies, venture capital, and even bank consultants, would disappear. People who don't have money can't invest, right?
We saw this happen in Greece. People did not flock to buy gold or bitcoin. Why? They didn't have any bloody money!
People ask me, "Why did they leave money in the Greek banks?" They didn't leave money in the banks. They didn't have money in the banks. Their paychecks [were going in] every Friday, and then were stuck there. They tried to take it out as fast as they could, try to make it until next Friday, when their employer gave [their paycheck] to the Greek banks for them again.
What do you do there? How do you escape that? People start selling their belongings [before] they start buying other assets. That is not something to wish for.
I hope we don't see a massive global financial crisis. I don't think it is good for anyone, obviously. It is painful and kills a lot of people. It is very damaging to the world economy.
We will see regional crises, though. I hope we have a gradual, non-violent, and copacetic transition to a superior technology... that serves the needs of people. However, if you read history, you know that [change] will probably not happen exactly like that.
[Laughter] At the same time, I will hope for that. The alternative is ugly, sudden, chaotic, disruptive, painful, violent and bloody. You will see people being persecuted. It is already happening in Venezuela.
Bitcoin miners are being arrested and given jail sentences for [activities]... [related to] mining [this] alternative currency. This is happening today. Let's hope that doesn't spread.
That is not [a good] way to achieve success, for desperate people to have no other choice. [It is about] people making an informed choice because they want to. You are here because of that. No one forced you to be here.
That is how we would like to keep it.